Bills vs Packers
Packers Super Bowl Odds: +600
Bills Super Bowl Odds: +1000
Packers NFC Champions Odds: +200
Bills AFC Champions Odds: +500
How the Packers make the Super Bowl:
Aaron Rodgers needs another ring on his resume and he has proved to everyone that he is a man on a mission. He should win MVP over Mahomes but I cannot predict what will happen with that award. Rodgers’ road to the Super Bowl is easier than the Bills because he doesn’t have to face the Chiefs. The only team that poses any threat is the Saints with a HEALTHY Drew Brees, but I’d still take the Packers in that hypothetical game.
Rodgers is number 1 in QBRTG this year with 118.0 and second place is no longer Mahomes, it is Deshaun Watson at 110.6. Rodgers is number 1 in passing touchdowns with 40 and only has 4 interceptions. Rodgers is also top 5 in completion percentage (69.6) and number 6 in yards.
Davante Adams is number 1 in the league in yards per game (98.8), number 2 in touchdowns (14) only trails Tyreek Hill, 3rd in yards after catch and top 5 in first downs.
In fantasy points allowed per game, the Packers are 4th against QB’s, 28th against RB’s, 6th against WR’s, 7th against TE’s, and 14th against kickers.
How the Bills make the Super Bowl:
Their road to the Super Bowl is much harder coming out of the AFC, but they have faced a harder strength of schedule than the Packers because of that fact. The Bills have had the 12th hardest schedule this year; number 1 was the Broncos, we have to give them credit for winning 5 games with all their quarterback problems. The team to beat in the AFC is the Chiefs, but in my opinion, the Bills have the best chance to beat them. They are motivated to prove the critics wrong and beat Mahomes. They have arguably the best defense in the NFL and a great offense as well. Green Bay is number 1 in time of possession this season while averaging 32 minutes and 48 seconds with the ball, however the Bills are 5th with 31 minutes and 30 seconds.
Josh Allen is my sleeper MVP pick. Allen is number 4 in passing yards this year (4,000), 6th in completion percentage (68.7%), 6th in touchdowns (30), 7th in QBRTG (104.2) and he only has 9 INT (2 came against the Cardinals)
In fantasy points allowed per game, the Bills are 19th against QB’s, 22nd against RB’s, 5th against WR’s, 29th against TE’s, and 6th against kickers.
Their best defenders aren’t the household names everyone knows but they play defense collectively and stop the plays that matter most. Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmunds, AJ Klein, Mario Addison, Tre’Davious White, Jerry Hughes and Ed Oliver lead the team in the most important defensive categories. A big free agent signing in Josh Norman has only played 7 games and has 20 tackles and only 2 tackles for loss.
To say that the Bills have a chance to beat the Chiefs we have to look at the Chiefs regular season beyond the box score. Versus the Dolphins Mahomes had 3 INT but still won the game. His INT’s weren’t bad passes they were great defensive plays. Xavien Howard made the play of his life with the one handed interception diving back into the end zone against the Chiefs. Bryon Jones’s interception was off a tipped pass, but Mahomes was still able to make the tackle to save the day. The interception by Andrew Van Ginkel was the result of the ball going through Edwards-Helairre’s hands on a check down pass. Mahomes threw 3 picks but if you look past the box score and analyze the game film you can see that Mahomes really should’ve had only 1 INT. The Bills can beat the Chiefs if they mimic the Raiders from week 5, because they gave everyone in the league the gameplan to beat Mahomes. Mahomes only had 1 INT (in the 4th quarter) and it was by Jeff Heath who also got 47 yards after the INT and ended the pick with a first and goal opportunity for the offense which put the Chiefs out of reach. Jon Gruden’s gameplan for that game was unbeatable and they went south after the game versus the Chiefs. The reason the Raiders won that game is because they had the ball for 35 minutes and 18 seconds and the Chiefs only possessed the ball for 24 minutes and 42 seconds. The Chiefs also were 6-14 on 3rd down and 1-2 on 4th down.
In order for the Bills to win they have to religiously study the game film from week 5. They need to dominate time of possession, they need to double team Tyreek Hill, and they need to get to the QB effectively without blitzing heavy.
The reason the Bills can win is because when they beat the Steelers Josh Allen said pregame, “Let them dance and we will play.” I love hearing Josh Allen mic’d up because he is the vocal leader of the Bills that they need. The Bills lost @ the Titans and @ the Cardinals (which came down to a Hail Mary by Kyler to Hopkins last second), they should’ve won both those games but you can’t expect a team to go undefeated. You can expect them to learn from their mistakes, and they have won 4 in a row. In their loss to the Chiefs Josh Allen went 14-27 passing in a low scoring battle. The potential AFC championship game will be low scoring too if the Bills face the Chiefs.
If my Super Bowl Prediction is wrong it will be Chiefs vs Packers and the Chiefs will win again!
Matt LaFleur’s career record is 21-7 (.750)
Sean McDermott’s career record is 33-28 (.541)
Andy Reid’s career record is 232-143-1 (.618)
The playoffs will come down to whichever head coach has the best gameplan, but if it’s not the Chiefs I believe it will be Bills vs Packers.